"Wins to watch" means that when the team's player wins three times out of the next eight domestic games (starting the 30th of September) the player will receive an additional one-time boost in stats equivalent to another in-form. In other words, if Man City win 3/8 games FIFA 23 coins, Haaland gets another +1 over and beyond the in-form updates the player receives. (Lol 'if'.)

Nations to Watch means that anyone who has a Ones to Watch card whose country is involved during the World Cup will receive a single in-form upgrade in the event that their team is victorious within the event. It's been a tough time for Erling on this front, it seems due to Norway's absence from the tournament. ('Tough times for Erling' is not something we expect to write on many other occasions this year/decade/millennium.)

Even better, Nations to Watch players don't require selection for their national team in order to get the upgrade. So when Gabriel Jesus somehow doesn't make Brazil's team, and his countrymen score victory in Qatar in the meantime, the Arsenal striker will still receive a +1.

Finally, it is important to mention the fact that Ones to Watch players do not receive upgrades on the basis of other promotional cards. In other words, if Tyler Adams gets some sort of wild 90+ card in April for the new promotion called Factsmashers or something else that is the case, his OTW is not upgraded accordingly. (Sorry Tyler. If this makes you feel any better, you are in virtually everyone's pre-order OTW packs.)

This year's unique transfer market behavior meant it was not always practical or economical to bring in good promo players to a team, even within a few days after they came out. It could still be the case with FIFA 23, but for currently, the best Ones to Watch players are going cost you a significant cost. Since they've received no upgrades at all buy FUT 23 coins, it is hard to suggest spending coins on them.